Sam Shirazi talks 2023 elections in Virginia

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Listen to my conversation with Sam Shirazi, an observer of Virginia politics. We talk about 2023 elections and three specific state Senate nomination races: John McGuire v. Duane Adams; Amanda Chase v. Glen Sturtevant v. Tina Ramirez; and Lashrecse Aird v. Joe Morrissey.

Listen to the conversation at the top of this newsletter and read some of the latest analysis from Shirazi below, as well.

Sam Shirazi @samshirazim

Del. Sally Hudson announced she will run next year for State Senate in SD-11 State Sen. Creigh Deeds has also announced setting up a big primary in a safe Dem seat Charlottesville should be more favorable for Hudson while surrounding suburbs and rural areas more so for Deeds

Sam Shirazi @samshirazim

This also means an open seat in one of the bluest House of Delegates districts with the Charlottesville based HD-54 I could see a lot of running candidates in this one as the Democratic nominee would almost certainly win the seat

Sam Shirazi @samshirazim

The 2022 results for the VA General Assembly districts are out thanks to @vpapupdates If Democrats can replicate these results, then they would have a majority in both chambers But state and Federal races can be different so have to keep that in mind when analyzing 1/4

Virginia Public Access Project @vpapupdates

#2022midterms results mapped by #Virginia's new state legislative districts. https://t.co/FziwHtJHcO https://t.co/w0dDRjDCjr

Sam Shirazi @samshirazim

2022 results in most competitive VA State Senate seats: SD-16 (Western Henrico): 54-44 D SD-31 (Loudoun/Fauquier): 53-47 D SD-27 (Fredericksburg/Stafford): 51-48.5 D SD-24 (Williamsburg/Newport News): 50-49 D SD-17 (Southside/Portsmouth): 50.2-49.8 D 2/4

Sam Shirazi @samshirazim

I usually don't do ratings, but I thought it could be useful to do a neutral environment outlook for 2023 General Assembly elections State Senate w/ competitive seats listed (21 for majority w/o tie breaker) 17 Safe D 2 Likely D 1 Lean D 3 Tossup 1 Lean R 2 Likely R 14 Safe R

Blue Virginia @bluevirginia

Per @vpapupdates's analysis, if the 2023 VA electorate is similar to 2022's, the State Senate has 21 strong/lean D seats vs. 16 strong/lean R seats (+3 tossups); the House of Delegates has 50 strong/lean D seats vs. 40 strong/lean R seats (+10 tossups). https://t.co/KFxHT772CE https://t.co/fyT8RtRrMo

Sam Shirazi @samshirazim

House of Delegates with competitive seats listed (51 needed for a majority) 44 Safe D 3 Likely D 1 Lean D 5 Tossups 2 Lean R 5 Likely R 40 Safe R

Sam Shirazi @samshirazim

One district I did not list as competitive is HD-55 If GOP Del. Rob Bell ends up running, there might be an argument for Likely D But pretty sure Josh Throneburg carried the Albemarle based district by around 20 points this year in VA-5 while carrying the county 2-1

Sam Shirazi @samshirazim

House of Delegates with competitive seats listed (51 needed for a majority) 44 Safe D 3 Likely D 1 Lean D 5 Tossups 2 Lean R 5 Likely R 40 Safe R https://t.co/aHCQsS2i2W

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Wren Williams @WrenWilliamsVA

My thoughts on Marie @MarchVa challenging @RepMGriffith

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Did you miss the newsletter from this morning:

• Amanda Chase endorsed Bryce Reeves’ primary opponent this morning. She gives three reasons why.

• Audio: Listen to Del. Marie March talk about Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA09) and how she believes there needs to be a change in representation in his district.

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