McAuliffe is poised for victory with just days left until the primary
The latest in Virginia politics
This is a daily newsletter covering Virginia politics with a special focus on the gubernatorial race. Please consider supporting independent journalism by becoming a paid subscriber today.
The Democratic gubernatorial race has not changed much in the last six months as former Governor Terry McAuliffe continues to cruise with the most powerful members of the party at his back.
McAuliffe has also vastly outraised his primary opponents and being out of office for less than four years appears to have given him the same name ID advantage that an incumbent typically would possess. With many campaigns expecting low turnout at the polls in June, that name ID and money advantage make McAuliffe hard to beat when there are five total candidates on the primary ballot.
McAuliffe has been the presumed frontrunner since long before he was officially in the race.
The former governor has faced criticisms of blocking progress by potentially standing in the way of the first Black woman being elected Governor in the United States — but his defenders point to the fact that the most powerful Black legislators in the commonwealth are at the forefront of his campaign. The Senate Pro-Tempore Louise Lucas is his campaign chair, for example.
McAuliffe’s campaign is centered around the words “big and bold,” as he says the phrase with nearly every policy rollout. It is simple, but according to the polls, it is working. The former governor isn’t taking that apparent lead for granted, however, as he continues to campaign across the state.
McAuliffe stopped by small businesses in Petersburg Saturday afternoon to talk to the owners and meet with supporters.
As he walked through Petersburg Pickers in Old Towne, a group of people who were walking by the shop stopped to get a glimpse at what was happening. It wasn’t hard for them to tell who was inside due to the large number of ‘Terry for Virginia’ signs on display at the time. “You guys want to stop and see the future governor of Virginia?” one man asked his friends as they walked up to the door.
McAuliffe’s campaign plans to keep up the pace of driving across the Commonwealth to drive supporter turnout in the final days of the primary campaign. “Heading into the final week before Primary Day, Terry will crisscross the Commonwealth to continue talking directly to voters about how he will create a more equitable post-COVID economy that lifts up all Virginians and highlighting the threat that Donald Trump’s hand-picked Republican nominee, extremist Glenn Youngkin, poses for the progress Virginians have made in the last eight years. Terry has defeated Republican extremists before and he is ready to do it again,” said Renzo Olivari, a spokesman for McAuliffe.
Former delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy has tried to take the role as the top progressive challenger to McAuliffe, but her campaign never fully hit its stride. She ran on her history as a person that grew up in Petersburg and lived through tough experiences to make it where she is today. That story is inspiring, her energy is uplifting, and she has done work in the General Assembly over the last four years — but running for statewide office as a one-and-a-half term delegate representing 1 percent of Virginians is like trying to build a house with a hammer and nails while your opponent already has power tools and a crew to use them.
Additionally, her campaign seemed to lose steam and funding in the final days with reductions to ad buys in the D.C. market and cuts to campaign staff.
She was able to raise a substantial amount of money for her campaign, however, in the beginning of the race. A large portion of that money came from billionaires Michael Bills and Sonjia Smith — two of the largest Democratic donors in recent years. Bills and Smith are curretnly at odds with the Democratic establishment over their funding of primary candidates in the House.
State Senator Jennifer McClellan has been one of the most respected members of the Virginia Democratic for years, but her gubernatorial run has also failed to find a stride. McClellan moved to the left over the last few years leading up to the race, but that wasn’t enough to fully separate her from McAuliffe, or her corporate background.
McClellan has represented parts of Richmond in the General Assembly for over a decade, making her the candidate in this race with the most state government experience. But experience as a legislator hasn’t translated positively in the polls. McClellan as a state senator has a larger district than Carroll Foy did, but still, her name ID statewide is still far behind McAuliffe’s.
State Delegate Lee Carter has been running a campaign to the left of the other candidates and has had some shining moments during debates — but he is unlikely to be in a competitive position when the votes are counted. Carter is a socialist, but he caucuses with the Democrats in the House of Delegates. Instead of winning the race, his campaign appears to have been focused more on the issues and taking advantage of the platform he has as a gubernatorial candidate to move the conversation.
Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax is also vying for the nomination and could potentially pull in the second most votes on June 8. However, besides his participation in the televised debates, his campaign has been nonexistent. He has no social media presence, raised a minimal amount of money, and makes very few public appearances. He was considered by many to be the likely 2021 nominee just a few years ago, but accusations of rape and sexual assault in 2019 from multiple women kneecapped his political career — even though he remains in his position and has presided over the state senate in the time since those accusations were first made against him.
In that last poll conducted by CNU’s Wason Center, 47% of registered voters that planned to vote in the primary were supporting McAuliffe. Fairfax was in second at 8%, and the other candidates fell below that.
There have been no significant developments in the race since that poll was conducted in mid-April. As long as McAuliffe can continue pushing forward and rally his core supporters to get them to the polls, it is hard to see him losing this nomination.
At a convention last month, Republicans nominated Glenn Youngkin, a former executive at The Carlyle Group, to be their gubernatorial nominee this November.
Youngkin calls for Loudoun County teacher Tanner Cross to be reinstated. Cross was recently placed on administrative leave for refusing to address a student by their preferred pronoun
The school board placed Cross on administrative leave after his comments at a meeting last week. “I’m a teacher, but I serve God first,” Cross said. “I will not affirm that a biological boy can be a girl and vice versa because it’s against my religion. It’s lying to a child, it’s abuse to a child and it’s sinning against our God.”
Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin spoke to Cross on the phone Sunday, before going on Fox News to defend him. “On a day where we’re celebrating and honoring and remembering the 1.2 million Americans who gave their lives for our freedom to protect our Constitution, it’s amazing to me that we see a Loudoun County School Board ignore and absolutely trample on Tanner Cross’ constitutional rights to express not only his religious beliefs but also his right to free speech, at a time when they invited such a discussion and now they are trying to cancel him simply for expressing his views that are in the best interest of the children and expressing his faith. It’s absolutely shameful,” Youngkin said on Fox News.
Jennifer McClellan’s Statement on Anniversary of Virginia Beach Shooting
“Two years ago today, we lost 12 innocent lives in Virginia Beach to a tragic mass shooting. There are no words or actions that can alleviate the pain and trauma of losing a loved one so tragically, but I continue to pray for and grieve with the families of the victims, the entire Virginia Beach community, and those across the Commonwealth who have lost loved ones to gun violence.
“As we remember all those we have lost, we must honor their lives by taking concrete action against senseless gun violence. One life lost to gun violence is too many. We must enact policies that address the underlying causes of gun violence and the proliferation of guns and gun violence itself to protect families across the Commonwealth. Today’s anniversary of the Virginia Beach shooting is a day of mourning and a reminder to all Virginians that we must continue our work to keep such tragedies from happening again.”
Virginia governor's race tests post-Trump GOP support in suburbs - Washington Times
by Haris Alic
The Virginia gubernatorial election this year will be the first test of whether Republicans can improve their standing among suburban voters with former President Donald Trump out of office.
Glenn Youngkin, the GOP‘s nominee, set his sights on a path through the suburbs to the governor’s mansion with a campaign that doesn’t fully embrace Mr. Trump but also doesn’t run away from him.
Accused Of Assaults He Denies, Justin Fairfax's Run For Va. Governor Tests #MeToo - VPM News
by Ben Paviour
Two years after two women came forward and accused him of sexual assault, Virginia Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax is now running to become the state's next governor. Not only does he maintain his innocence, he says he was treated like George Floyd and Emmett Till.
"It becomes a complete injustice — and one that mirrors a history of racial injustice — when as an African American, you have no opportunity to establish that these allegations are not true," Fairfax said in an interview with NPR in March.
Mapping alliances in the Democratic primary - Virginia Mercury
by Ned Oliver
Endorsements don’t necessarily mean a whole lot when it comes to determining who’s going to win an election. But they can illustrate alliances, partnerships and factions that develop over time. To that end, the chart below traces 70 endorsements by sitting state and federal elected officials in Virginia in next month’s Democratic primary for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
Manipulate the visualization by clicking and dragging candidates (big circles) or their supporters (small circles); select or deselect races by clicking the legend. For best results, view on a desktop or tablet.
Black women’s next targets: governorships and Senate seats - Associated Press
by Bill Barrow
Jennifer McClellan remembers her parents’ recounting life as Black Southerners enduring segregation and the trauma and triumph of the civil rights movement.
It showed her that government can be “a powerful force for improving people’s lives” but also one “that oppresses some, ignores others.”
Democrats defend House incumbents before eyes turn to fall - Associated Press
by Sarah Rankin
Democrats who have transformed Virginia at whiplash speed over the past two years will be defending their full control of the statehouse this fall. But first, they are trying to get an usually high number of House incumbents past primary challenges.
Fourteen House Democrats are spending and organizing against challenges from their own party this year, compared with only three Republican incumbents.
More News:
Meet the anti-capitalism Va. House candidate who wants to shift power to the working class
In 31st District race, Hall racks up endorsements, Guzman cites experience
Henrico supervisor pulls back on police oversight efforts after colleagues stonewall
State gives John Tyler Community College the official blessing to change its name