Bob Holsworth: SPEED DATING IN THE 4TH CD
Bob Holsworth: SPEED DATING IN THE 4TH CD
Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth provided the following analysis on the VA-04 congressional contest.
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Speaker Gilbert backs Ellen Campbell
Speaker of the House Todd Gilbert is backing Ellen Campbell to replace her late-husband in the House of Delegates. Ronnie Campbell passed away earlier this week after a battle with cancer.
“Transitions like this are never easy. Were it up to me, my friend Ronnie Campbell would be in the chamber with us when we return in January. Sadly, that cannot be,” Gilbert said Thursday. “I can think of no one better suited to step in for Ronnie for the 2023 session than his beloved wife Ellen. Ellen Campbell has said she is willing to stand for election to complete the year remaining in Ronnie’s term, and she has my wholehearted endorsement to do so. I look forward to working with her to complete Ronnie’s work as the voice of Amherst, Augusta, Bath, Rockbridge, Buena Vista and Lexington.”
Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth provided the following analysis on the VA-04 congressional contest. Read it below
SPEED DATING IN THE 4TH CD
The campaign to fill the opening for the 4th District congressional seat as a result of Donald MscEachin’s ultimately passing is the political equivalent of speed dating.
Given the date that Governor Youngkin selected for the special election at the beginning of 2023, both the Democrats and Republicans have essentially 7 days to choose their nominee. Since the district is is overwhelmingly Democratic, most attention is rightfully placed on the Democrats’ firehouse primary upcoming on Tuesday.
At first it appeared that the contest would essentially be a two way race between Senator Jennifer McClellan and Delegate Lamont Bagby with former Delegate Joe Preston and Tavorise Marks lagging.
But this quickly changed when Senator Joe Morrissey threw his hat into the contest. I don’t believe that there is any doubt that Morrissey has the highest name recognition of all the candidates, even though a chunk of it is not positive.
Morrissey’s candidacy essentially made Bagby’s hopes untenable. As I see it, there are very few original McClellan voters who will switch to Morrissey. At the same time, Morrissey will appeal to many voters that Bagby hoped to court successfully.
Bagby has now withdrawn from the race and pledged his support to McClellan. It’s hard to imagine that this won’t be seen as the Democratic establishment coalescing around a “Stop Joe” movement, especially since they believe that Morrissey has been asking Republicans for support.
Morrissey has objected to the party’s decision to hold a firehouse primary on a Tuesday, contending that it penalizes working class voters who won’t have the time to get off work and travel to one of the relatively few voting sites around the district. He’s right about this. But Jennifer McClellan is a strong and appealing candidate in her own right- the chosen process will only make it more difficult to defeat her.
Morrissey has shown the capacity to mobilize voters without the support of the party’s honchos and honchas. But can he do so in a speed dating situation where his strongest opponent is very well liked and well qualified, the establishment is united against him, and the process appears designed to stymie him?
More from Morrissey?
Joe Morrissey is set to make an announcement this afternoon after Lamont Bagby dropped out of the race and endorsed his opponent Jennifer McClellan. Stay tuned for breaking updates on what Morrissey has to say.
Morrissey goes federal. Wow.