Biberaj is running for SD-32; Look at some polling on the race
The poll compares Srinivasan and Biberaj against a potential Republican.
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Polling on a matchup between Srinivasan and Biberaj in SD-32
A third party conducted a poll that was not commissioned by any particular campaign comparing a potential head-to-head matchup between Del. Kannan Srinivasan, D-Loudoun, and former Loudoun County Buta Biberaj against a potential Republican nominee.
Biberaj has not made a public announcement, but she sent around a text to Democrats and uploaded a video to her website stating she is running Thursday. She served as the commonwealth attorney for Loudoun from 2019 until she lost her bid for reelection on 2023.
The poll does not include any of the other many Democrats running for the seat, but it does show how the race would shape up theoretically for Srinivasan and Biberaj in a matchup against a Republican.
Blueprint Polling conducted the poll between Oct. 19 and 21, assuming that Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Loudoun, won his congressional election.
The pollsters paired both Srinivasan and Biberaj against a potential Republican opponent, Loudoun Supervisor Matt Letourneau.
Here are some key takeaways from the polling memo released by Blueprint that Virginia Scope obtained:
The district may have moved slightly to the right over the past four years. Voters in the district self-reported voting for Joe Biden over Donald Trump 63%-30% in 2020, while Kamala Harris leads by a somewhat narrower 56%-33%. The largest dip seems to have come amongst Asian voters, who reported supporting Biden 83%-10% in 2020 but now only back Harris 63%-18%.
Of the potential Democratic candidates Blueprint tested, Biberaj has the highest name ID. However, she has a net negative favorability (25% favorable - 31% unfavorable). Blueprint said this seems to mostly stem from the fact that Biberaj is better-known among Republicans (among whom she has 69% name ID vs. 49% among Democrats), and Republicans hold an especially unfavorable opinion of Biberaj at 4% favorable/65% unfavorable leading to a significant -61% net unfavorable. Srinivasan has a lower name ID (38%) but is a net +3% favorable — voters who know him tend to have a favorable opinion of him.
Letourneau is popular with voters, with a net +23% favorability, which Blueprint said is strong for a Republican in this Democratic-leaning district. In the initial ballot tests, Srinivasan performed a net 3.3% better than Biberaj, in part due to Srinivasan overperforming among Indian-American voters. There are also fewer Democratic defections to Letourneau when Srinivasan is in the race (5% of Harris voters vote for Letourneau over Srinivasan vs. 9% in the Biberaj hypothetical race). In each race, the Democratic candidates hold +17% leads among women, while it is a dead heat among men.
Blueprint then offered the following descriptions of each candidate before asking more questions:
“Buta Biberaj is the former Commonwealth’s Attorney for Loudoun County, the first woman elected to that office, where she ensured justice was delivered with integrity and fairly to all, and championed equality and transparency.
Critics say Buta sat by while violent crime increased, hired a convicted sex offender in her office, and her incompetence allowed a murderer to escape.”
Srinivasan
“Kannan Srinivasan is a local business leader and the Delegate for the 26th district, here in Loudoun County, where he’s defended reproductive freedom, expanded voting rights, and worked to make health care more affordable.
Critics say Kannan is still too inexperienced, having only served in the state legislature for less than a year before running for the next office.”
After receiving this information, Srinivasen’s lead grew to 50% over the Republican, while Biberaj’s dropped to 44%.
Blueprint offered this conclusion in their polling memo:
“Both Democratic candidates hold an advantage over the likely Republican nominee, Matt Letourneau, with each leading him by at least 6.5% throughout the survey. Critically, of the two, Kannan Srinivasan seems to be the strongest, and on the informed ballot, he improves while Biberaj fades slightly. Srinivasan does particularly well among Indian-Americans and voters with a college degree, relative to the other two candidates.
“While Democrats clearly have the advantage in the district, in a low turnout, special election, strange things can happen, and a 6-7% lead can evaporate quickly. It is also notable that Democratic strength may have decreased somewhat in the district over the last four years, as Kamala Harris’ lead over Donald Trump is lower than Biden’s win here in 2020. Further backsliding could again put the district at risk for Democrats in a special election.”
The poll's sample size was 489, with a margin of error of +/—4.42%. The results were weighted to match the likely 2025 special election turnout.
This poll also does not consider the other Democrats in the race: former Del. Ibraheem Samirah, D-Loudoun, Hurunnessa Fariad, Sreedhar NagiReddi and Puja Khanna.”
