A Richmond City Councilor is rumored to be planning a run for the House of Delegates
Also: Will abortion access help Democrats in November? I asked a political expert.
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The rundown
Rumor Mill: Sources say a Richmond City Councilwoman is planning a run for the House of Delegates. This could set up a competitive primary against a candidate who announced earlier this year.
Could abortion impact base turnout in red and blue states in a surprising way? A political scientist provides analysis on how abortion could impact turnout for midterm elections.
Cook Political Report changed the rating for two Virginia congressional races.
Luria and Kiggans’ campaigns respond to the debate with statements attacking each other.
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Cook shifts VA-07 and VA-10 to the right
Cook Political Report shifted Virginia’s seventh congressional district from “Lean-Democratic” to a “Toss-Up.” Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) is currently seeking reelection to the House in this newly drawn district. Prince William Supervisor Yesli Vega (R) is looking to unseat her.
In the grand scheme, these ratings don’t actually matter — but they are a reflection of what prognosticators, who are not always correct, believe will happen in one of the tightest congressional races in the country.
They also shifted VA-10 from “Solid Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”
Vega responded to the news on Tuesday by calling it “Huge News.”
Could abortion impact base turnout in red and blue states in a surprising way?
Could Democrats in blue states be in trouble due to the lowered risk to voters on abortion rights? Could the same issue arise for Republicans in red states? Cook Political Report pointed out the discrepancies in Biden-won districts and how Democratic candidates are running behind him now in blue states and ahead of him in red states.
In Virginia, where Biden won Virginia by 10 points just 12 months prior to a Republican governor winning here for the first time since 2009, it is difficult to say what this will mean; or if abortion access will have any impact on the congressional elections.
A Republican governor and House of Delegates have stated that they intend to try and enact a 15-week ban on abortion, which would drastically reduce access in the Commonwealth. Currently, you can receive an abortion up to the 26-week and 6-day mark. The Democratic-controlled state Senate is the only obstacle to Republicans enacting this 15-week ban.